The Corbyn Phenomenon

This post looks at reasons for why Jeremy Corbyn is the favourite to become leader of the Labour Party.


History

The Labour party has a group for some of its left wing MPs called the Socialist Campaign Group. In recent leadership elections, a member of this group has put themselves forwards as the left wing candidate for leader. In 2007 John McDonnell tried to run against Gordon Brown, but did not receive the required number of nominations to force an election. In 2010 Diane Abbott entered the contest, and in 2015 Jeremy Corbyn is running. In all three cases, the candidate has struggled to achieve the required number of nominations to get on the ballot. Abbott and Corbyn were both nominated by MPs who later stated that they would not vote for them for leader, but wanted them on the ballot in order to broaden the debate.

The 2010 leadership contest is remembered for the contest between the Miliband brothers, with little contest from the left of the party. But, this is because Labour's old electoral system gave MPs a third of the vote. This meant that unless a candidate had 75% of the vote share in the member and affiliated member categories, MPs would be able to prevent them from becoming leader. In 2010, Diane Abbott came 3rd in 1st preference votes, but was kicked out in the 1st round because she received  little support from MPs.

Labour's 2010 leadership election first preferences without the votes of MPs. 






So, Jeremy Corbyn is not starting from nowhere. Even in 2010 his side of the party was able to get to 3rd place on 1st preferences, despite the structure of the leadership election making victory almost impossible. The reforms to the electoral system mean that victory for the left in the party is now possible. Once on the ballot, MPs have no further power to control the contest. This is what has led to the current situation, where Jeremy Corbyn may win the leadership despite having little support from his fellow MPs.


Recent Events

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The IFS graph shows the distributional effect of the 2015 budget. It is clearly regressive. The government's policy has helped Corbyn's anti-austerity argument by linking austerity and regressive policy together.

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A second, very important factor behind Corbyn's rise in support was the Labour party's official abstention on the Conservative party's welfare bill. A large proportion of savings for the government are going to come from welfare. The SNP and Green party opposed the bill and used it as an opportunity to attack the Labour party from the left. Jeremy Corbyn was the only leadership candidate to oppose the bill. This turned Corbyn into the outsider candidate at a time when popular distrust of politicians is high. Repeated warnings by past Labour establishment figures like Blair and Brown to not vote for Corbyn have been ineffective partially because of Corbyn's outsider status. The lack of trust in Blair, Brown and other New Labour figures have also made it very difficult to make a line of attack on Corbyn work.


Membership

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There is some concern by Jeremy Corbyn supporters that the Labour party is trying to remove some of his supporters before the election, and some in the Labour party fear they are being infiltrated. However, this data suggests that the gap between old and new members' support for Jeremy Corbyn isn't particularly large. The new membership is more left wing than the old membership, judged by their support for Corbyn, but the gap is only 11% compared to members joining after Ed Miliband became leader. Corbyn's high level of support among members suggests that his support is not just coming from new members and £3 supporters, but that there have been many members within the Labour party who have wanted someone like Jeremy Corbyn to be their leader for some time.

Collapse of the center, rise of the radicals?

The 2015 General Election may be remembered by history as the collapse of the center, but the radical parties have their own problems.

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This map shows the seats that changed on Thursday. Both Labour and the Conservatives gained in England and Wales. The Conservatives lost 11 seats and Labour lost 8. Their gains mostly came from taking Liberal Democrat seats. But, despite taking Lib Dem seats, the major parties didn't take Lib Dem votes. The Lib Dem vote share fell by 15.2% but the combined vote share for Labour and the Conservatives rose by only 2.3%. The centrist party has seen its vote collapse and go to the extremes.

In Scotland, the SNP grew its vote share in Scotland by 30%. During the campaign they presented themselves as a radical voice for Scotland. But, the SNP are not as radical as the election campaign made them seem to be. They've been in government in Scotland for 8 years and have frozen council tax every year in power. This is a policy that was first introduced to the UK by that well known left-wing firebrand Margaret Thatcher who introduced the 1984 Rates Act to stop local councils from raising taxes to fund local services because the government wanted to limit tax increases. Their macroeconomic policy of opposing austerity might appear radical, but it is academically mainstream, and given that it’s a policy for the UK it is one the SNP know they will never be held accountable for. In the past, Alex Salmond proposed cutting corporation tax, and he praised Scotland's finance minister, John Swinney, for being the only finance minister in Europe running a balanced budget. Their rhetoric has moved to the left under Nicola Sturgeon, but the SNP campaign on identity as much as on socioeconomic issues. Their position on policies should be seen through their nationalism, which is their distinctive radical position and can't be replicated across the rest of the UK.

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This map shows the second place parties in seats across the UK. Green party candidates only came second in four seats anywhere in the UK. UK general elections work under 'Single Member Plurality', so whoever gets the most votes, even if it's not a majority, wins the seat. This encourages people to vote for either the winner or the second place party so they feel that their vote isn't wasted. With so few Green candidates in second place, they will struggle immensely at the next election to win any more seats. Brighton is their only seat, and with only 3.8% of the national vote they have a lot of work to do. The Green party does present a radical alternative to existing politics, but its rise isn't impressive and is too geographically dispersed to have an impact in parliament.

UKIP performed better, coming second in 120 seats. Disturbingly for the Conservatives and Labour, they came in second place in a number of seats across the country. At the next election, one of the major parties will have to try to fight from third place to win those seats, a fight that will be difficult if UKIP doesn't implode. This will reinforce the geographic division in the UK where the Conservatives do well in the South and Labour do well in the North. UKIP are radical with an impressive rise, but their geographic dispersion leaves them powerless. Nevertheless, they now have something to build on.

During the course of this parliament, Labour and the Conservatives will have to try to target the 16% of voters who supported UKIP and the Greens. Their disappointing performance in this election will reduce some of their support making them susceptible to the overtures of the major parties. The radical parties will be denied the publicity they received outside of an election campaign, so the two major parties have the advantage for engaging with these voters. If they succeed, the center (outside of Scotland) may still hold.

2015 general election: General overview

This post is just a general overview of what happened in the election to the major parties. I'll focus specifically on each party in later posts when more data becomes available.



1. The Conservative Party

Until this week, the Conservative party under David Cameron had been unable to win a majority in the House of Commons since 1992, had a substantial threat from UKIP, and was facing a 50% chance of losing power. This has improved immeasurably since Thursday night.


The Conservative party has a majority, however small, in parliament for the first time in over two decades. Crucially, this shows that the Conservative party can win general elections, which would have been thrown into serious doubt if Cameron had lost. This will give the party a psychological boost, despite their long term problems.

The Conservatives won 36.9% of the vote, barely over a third. In the long term the Conservative vote is older and dying out. Cameron has successfully increased his vote and seat share in the House of Commons, the first time this has happened since Harold Wilson in 1974. But, on election night, the Conservatives became the third party in many northern seats, beaten back by Labour and UKIP. Their toxic brand in many parts of the country threatens their future. However, in good news, they did win 35% of the vote in London, unchanged on last time. Not going backwards in a diverse city is a good result for them.

On the UKIP threat, Mark Reckless lost his seat, Tim Aker and Nigel Farage failed to win, and Douglas Carswell only has a 7% majority. The implicit message to Conservative backbenchers is clear: you can defect, but you can't be sure of winning. With Farage outside parliament, and a Conservative majority, UKIP won't be a problem for a few years until by-elections and the EU referendum.

However, at 331 seats in parliament the Conservatives only have a majority of 16 (Sinn Fein do not take their seats in the Commons so this makes the effective size of the Commons 646). Sudden deaths and accidents will reduce this so a majority Conservative government is unlikely to last for the whole five years. Potential DUP or Liberal Democrat support may be needed later in this parliament.

With that small a majority, party management will be crucial for the government. A rebellion from less than a dozen MPs could lose a vote. Cameron has been perceived as having a small elite advising him and has neglected relations with his own backbenchers, particularly his right wing. Dealing with this early on will be crucial. The choice of Chief Whip will be important, as they will need to be respected across the party, particularly by those on the right of the party who are most likely to rebel.



2. The Labour Party

Labour have done badly. Their vote share is 30.4%, just above their 2010 level, and they have only 232 seats, their lowest number of seats since 1983.


Scotland is a constitutional problem for all of the unionist parties. For Labour, it's also an electoral catastrophe. Losing 40 seats in what was Labour's stronghold has diminished Labour's parliamentary position and such a defeat will make rebuilding very difficult, particularly for the 2016 Holyrood elections.

However, the Labour party didn't lose the election because of Scotland. Even if every Scottish seat had returned a Labour MP, we would still have a Conservative majority government. In England and Wales, Labour gained a net 14 seats. It even lost a seat in Wales, where Labour has historically been dominant (but not to the same extent as in Scotland). In Wales, Labour's vote share rose by 0.6%. In England, Labour's share rose by 3.6%. But the Conservative vote rose as well. Whoever the next leader is will have to work on this result. However, despite doing badly in seats, the English position for Labour isn't unassailable. It is only 9% behind the Conservatives, and 5 more years of austerity and constitutional crises from the EU and Scotland may benefit Labour no matter what the party does.

Going forwards, the Conservatives will have a few months of limited opposition from a Labour party that will be inward looking with a leadership election. This will allow the Conservatives to set much of the narrative for the next five years. It may also threaten the Labour party's internal stability if the leadership competition within the party doesn't resolve Labour's real issues. Among many things (I will look at these in detail in a later post), these include: trust, economic credibility, UKIP, a hostile media environment, and significant philosophical divisions within the Labour party. There may not be time to take action on these with Scottish and Welsh elections in May 2016.



3. The Liberal Democrats.

Nick Clegg offered to give a brain to a Labour government, and a heart to a Conservative one. They turned down his organs and took his seats instead.


The Liberal Democrats lost 49 seats, and are reduced to a party of 8. During the coalition, they lost hundreds of local councillors and have now been wiped out in the South-West. They lost some of their most senior MPs, including Danny Alexander and Vince Cable. The Liberal Democrats entered this election with few female MPs, and no BAME MPs. They are now a party of 8 straight white men. This lack of diversity will limit their appeal going forwards. In any case, it will take them a generation to repair their reputation and rebuild their parliamentary representation.

But, they have some advantages. Losing Nick Clegg as leader, and most other senior MPs allows the Liberal Democrats to redefine who they are. Their new leader will have been less associated with the government in the public's mind, and this will allow them to redefine their identity. They can position themselves as equidistant between the Conservative and Labour parties, or try to present themselves as a party of radicalism, with positive things to say about the EU, constitutional reform and immigration.



4. The United Kingdom Independence Party.

UKIP have established themselves as the third party in British politics, but their best asset couldn't win his seat.


UKIP won 12.6% of the vote, and are the second party in a number of seats including northern Labour seats. This fits UKIP's '2020' strategy, where the intention is to build upon the second places that they have now obtained to make a stronger challenge at the next general election. They have also secured parliamentary representation.

But, 3.8 million votes and 1 MP: the electoral system is unkind to UKIP and this is unlikely to change. If it were not for the party's vote share it would be in crisis. The resignation of Nigel Farage as party leader leaves a vacuum, with no other member of UKIP having comparable media presence. But his resignation statement suggests that he may not be gone for long, returning in a few months if his party is unable to find anyone able to take his place.

Going forward, we have an EU referendum where UKIP will play a strong part in the campaign. And keep an eye on the Welsh Assembly elections next May. UKIP won 13.6% of the vote in wales on Thursday. The Welsh Assembly uses a mixed member system which is more proportional than FPTP, so UKIP representation in the Welsh Assembly seems very likely. Winning seats there would help them to rebut the accusation that they are a party for English nationalists.




5. The Scottish National Party.

The unsurprising winners in this election.


An impressive record: winning all but 3 Scottish seats, remove the senior members of the Scottish Labour Party from the Commons, and gaining 50% of the Scottish popular vote. However, a Conservative majority limits the power of the SNP to cause trouble at Westminster as they might have done in a hung parliament.

However, as a consolation prize, a Conservative government is an excellent thing to campaign against for the Holyrood elections next year. The SNP can reasonably point out that no matter which way Scotland voted on Thursday, Scotland would have received a Conservative government. The collapse of Scottish Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Scotland will make opposition to the SNP very difficult.

The most important thing for the SNP to consider before then will be the Conservative party's devolution proposals. They are likely to give Holyrood significantly greater powers, but come with 'English Votes for English Laws' (EVEL) attached. Deciding how to respond to this will matter for the 2016 campaign.



6. The Green Party

The Greens performed as expected.


3.8% of the vote doesn't justify the claims of a Green surge that came before the election. But, as with UKIP, winning over a million votes but only receiving 1 MP will reinforce Green demands for a more proportional electoral system. Caroline Lucas kept her seat. She is a good media performer and increased her majority in Brighton, so guaranteeing the Greens a voice in parliament to build up their support.

Going forwards, the Greens will probably try to take over the Liberal Democrats in voter share. They can happily argue for constitutional reform and a pro-immigration stance, which will make it difficult for the Liberal Democrats to forge a unique identity for themselves.



7. Plaid Cymru


A disappointing result for the party.


Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales, came fourth in the popular vote in Wales. It even lost to UKIP! Unchanged at 3 seats out of 40, with only a 1% rise in their vote share in Wales. The inclusion of Leanne Wood in the general election debates clearly didn't improve Plaid's performance as they may have hoped.

A Conservative majority government removes the chance of any power that they may have had in a hung parliament, and now they will focus on the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections.