Collapse of the center, rise of the radicals?

The 2015 General Election may be remembered by history as the collapse of the center, but the radical parties have their own problems.

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This map shows the seats that changed on Thursday. Both Labour and the Conservatives gained in England and Wales. The Conservatives lost 11 seats and Labour lost 8. Their gains mostly came from taking Liberal Democrat seats. But, despite taking Lib Dem seats, the major parties didn't take Lib Dem votes. The Lib Dem vote share fell by 15.2% but the combined vote share for Labour and the Conservatives rose by only 2.3%. The centrist party has seen its vote collapse and go to the extremes.

In Scotland, the SNP grew its vote share in Scotland by 30%. During the campaign they presented themselves as a radical voice for Scotland. But, the SNP are not as radical as the election campaign made them seem to be. They've been in government in Scotland for 8 years and have frozen council tax every year in power. This is a policy that was first introduced to the UK by that well known left-wing firebrand Margaret Thatcher who introduced the 1984 Rates Act to stop local councils from raising taxes to fund local services because the government wanted to limit tax increases. Their macroeconomic policy of opposing austerity might appear radical, but it is academically mainstream, and given that it’s a policy for the UK it is one the SNP know they will never be held accountable for. In the past, Alex Salmond proposed cutting corporation tax, and he praised Scotland's finance minister, John Swinney, for being the only finance minister in Europe running a balanced budget. Their rhetoric has moved to the left under Nicola Sturgeon, but the SNP campaign on identity as much as on socioeconomic issues. Their position on policies should be seen through their nationalism, which is their distinctive radical position and can't be replicated across the rest of the UK.

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This map shows the second place parties in seats across the UK. Green party candidates only came second in four seats anywhere in the UK. UK general elections work under 'Single Member Plurality', so whoever gets the most votes, even if it's not a majority, wins the seat. This encourages people to vote for either the winner or the second place party so they feel that their vote isn't wasted. With so few Green candidates in second place, they will struggle immensely at the next election to win any more seats. Brighton is their only seat, and with only 3.8% of the national vote they have a lot of work to do. The Green party does present a radical alternative to existing politics, but its rise isn't impressive and is too geographically dispersed to have an impact in parliament.

UKIP performed better, coming second in 120 seats. Disturbingly for the Conservatives and Labour, they came in second place in a number of seats across the country. At the next election, one of the major parties will have to try to fight from third place to win those seats, a fight that will be difficult if UKIP doesn't implode. This will reinforce the geographic division in the UK where the Conservatives do well in the South and Labour do well in the North. UKIP are radical with an impressive rise, but their geographic dispersion leaves them powerless. Nevertheless, they now have something to build on.

During the course of this parliament, Labour and the Conservatives will have to try to target the 16% of voters who supported UKIP and the Greens. Their disappointing performance in this election will reduce some of their support making them susceptible to the overtures of the major parties. The radical parties will be denied the publicity they received outside of an election campaign, so the two major parties have the advantage for engaging with these voters. If they succeed, the center (outside of Scotland) may still hold.